Rupee likely to hover around ₹89–₹90 if uncertainty persists
The Indian rupee may stay in the ₹89 to ₹90 range against the US dollar while market uncertainty continues, experts say. Traders and businesses are being advised to plan for more muted volatility rather than a sharp recovery in the near term.
Why the rupee is under pressure
- Global monetary shifts: Tightening or cautious guidance from major central banks tends to lift the dollar and weigh on emerging market currencies.
- Capital flows: Outflows or slower foreign investment into local markets reduce demand for the rupee.
- Trade and commodity factors: A larger trade deficit or higher oil prices can add pressure to the currency.
- Geopolitical and economic uncertainty: Any fresh shocks abroad or weaker growth expectations can keep investors cautious.
What to watch next
- Policy signals from major central banks and the Reserve Bank of India.
- Foreign institutional investor flows and corporate hedging activity.
- Oil prices and the country’s trade balance data.
- Domestic inflation and growth indicators that could influence currency strategy.
Implications for businesses and investors
For importers and firms with foreign-currency exposure, a sustained range of ₹89–₹90 means higher import costs and potential margin pressure. Exporters may benefit from competitive pricing, but planning around currency swings remains essential. Investors should consider hedging and staggered entry strategies rather than betting on a quick rupee rebound.
In short: Unless the global and domestic sources of uncertainty ease, the rupee is likely to trade near current levels. Monitoring policy moves, capital flows and commodity trends will be key to anticipating any shift.