Mobile market snapshot: a large user base, limited 4G reach
The country’s mobile base totals 92.2 million subscribers, but only about 22 million of them are on 4G networks. That means roughly 24% of users can access faster mobile data natively. Moving the entire market to modern networks will be a complex process that touches devices, network capacity, costs and user behavior.
Handset compatibility: the first barrier
One of the most immediate hurdles is the devices people use. A large share of subscribers still rely on feature phones or older smartphones that support only 2G or 3G. Upgrading millions of handsets is not just a technical issue — it’s an economic one.
- Affordability: Many users cannot afford new 4G-capable phones without subsidies or financing options.
- Awareness: Some customers don’t know why they should upgrade or how to choose a compatible device.
- Device lifecycle: Handset replacement cycles vary. Businesses and individuals may delay purchases until phones break or until cheaper models become available.
Network stability: capacity, coverage and quality concerns
Even if users upgrade devices, networks must be ready to carry much more data traffic. Transitioning tens of millions of new 4G users can strain existing infrastructure if not managed carefully.
- Backhaul and core upgrades: Mobile towers need stronger microwave or fiber links and upgraded core equipment to handle increased throughput.
- Spectrum allocation: Operators need adequate spectrum and may need to refarm bands previously used for older technologies.
- Coverage gaps: Rural and underserved areas often have weaker 4G coverage, risking unequal service quality after migration.
- Service stability: Sudden shifts in traffic patterns can lead to congestion, dropped calls, or slower data speeds if capacity planning is insufficient.
The shift away from older networks affects more than just connectivity. It touches commerce, public services and inclusion.
- Digital divide: If upgrades favor urban or higher-income users, rural communities may fall further behind.
- Small businesses: Vendors who rely on simple SMS or voice platforms may need new tools or training to use IP-based services.
- Emergency and IoT services: Some legacy devices used in transport, security and health monitoring rely on older networks and will need careful migration plans.
How operators and policymakers can ease the transition
Coordinated action can reduce disruption and accelerate adoption.
- Subsidies and trade-in programs: Targeted subsidies, affordable handset plans or trade-in incentives make 4G devices more accessible.
- Phased network shutdowns: Gradual retirement of older networks with clear timelines gives consumers and businesses time to adapt.
- Investment in infrastructure: Expanding fiber backhaul and refarming spectrum helps maintain stability as load increases.
- Consumer education: Simple guides, retail support and community outreach can increase awareness and trust in upgrades.
- Support for critical services: Identify legacy IoT and emergency systems and provide tailored migration or bridge solutions.
Practical steps for a smoother migration
Operators and regulators can take concrete measures that address both handset and network challenges.
- Map the 2G/3G user distribution and prioritize upgrades in areas with high demand or strategic importance.
- Launch affordable device bundles with small installments tied to service plans.
- Run network load tests and expand capacity before announcing major shutdown dates.
- Coordinate with manufacturers and retailers to ensure a steady supply of low-cost 4G handsets.
- Establish helplines and walk-in centers to assist users with device setup and service migration.
Why planning matters
Transitioning a market of 92.2 million subscribers — where only 22 million are already on 4G — is not just a technical upgrade. It’s a social and economic change. Thoughtful planning, clear communication and targeted support will be essential to avoid service disruption and to ensure the benefits of modern mobile networks reach everyone.